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Will The Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?

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Amalrik understands what reaganites never will...


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Amalrik understands what reaganites never will...

30 review for Will The Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?

  1. 4 out of 5

    Paul Bryant

    Imagine that - in the late 1960s the annoying Russian dissident Amalrik writes a long essay with the title Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984! At that point the USSR's grip on its client states throughout the world was, it appeared, total - the Prague Spring has just been flattened with tanks - and the USA appeared to be content with the concept of MAD (remember that? Mutually Assured Destruction. This meant we could sleep safely knowing that they knew as much as we knew that anyone pushin Imagine that - in the late 1960s the annoying Russian dissident Amalrik writes a long essay with the title Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984! At that point the USSR's grip on its client states throughout the world was, it appeared, total - the Prague Spring has just been flattened with tanks - and the USA appeared to be content with the concept of MAD (remember that? Mutually Assured Destruction. This meant we could sleep safely knowing that they knew as much as we knew that anyone pushing the button first would be evaporated too - if I had had children in those far off days, I would have tucked them up in their beds and said Go to sleep, my pretty ones, you are perfectly safe, our leaders believe in mutually assured destruction... sweet dreams, sweet dreams...). So this breathtakingly presumptuous essay was smuggled westwards and published in Holland in 1970 and all the lefties wagged their heads and snorted derisively. And yes, this essay was wrong, he was out by five years.... So we saw with goggling eyes the vanishing of communism as any kind of viable alternative to capitalism, and now see what's happened to capitalism... not a pretty sight. And now that the roof's fallen in, there's no alternative but to pay the same builders who clearly don't know what they're doing to rebuild the whole house. And now I do have children, I say Go to sleep, my pretty ones, go to sleep....you are quite safe...

  2. 4 out of 5

    Mario

    This is a brilliant, inspired work. Amalrik saw what, at the time (1970), seemed impossible: that the Soviet Union could simply collapse under internal pressures, and relatively soon (he was a little early with the date, though, with he chose for the obvious Orwell allusion more than anything else). He reasoned that the "widening area of freedom" that the Soviet people were seeing was not intentional liberalization but the government losing its ability to maintain control. His prediction was the This is a brilliant, inspired work. Amalrik saw what, at the time (1970), seemed impossible: that the Soviet Union could simply collapse under internal pressures, and relatively soon (he was a little early with the date, though, with he chose for the obvious Orwell allusion more than anything else). He reasoned that the "widening area of freedom" that the Soviet people were seeing was not intentional liberalization but the government losing its ability to maintain control. His prediction was the the regime would ultimately be forced into a militarily ambitious war campaign to build up a sense of nationalism, but that it would not be able to wage war and provide enough to keep its own citizens happy, provoking unrest and eventually anarchy -- a prediction vindicated by history. He spends a little too much time at the end discussing his idea of what would be the proximate cause (war with China, which didn't happen, although you could point to the actual war in Afghanistan as serving the same purpose), but on the whole the work is a devastating analysis (one could even say diagnosis) of Soviet society at the time. A possible lesson to take from this book is the incompatibility between a totalitarian government and a fully functioning economy. Economic reforms are impossible to contain, and they inevitably leak into the political sphere. Capitalism is democracy, in other words, and since a small amount of capitalism becomes its own fuel, the only way to maintain full control over the long-term is to avoid any economic development and simply keep the people as poor as possible, e.g. North Korea. Its hard to read this and not see the parallels between the burgeoning Soviet problems of 1970 and the current dilemmas faced by China, particularly as they both have to deal with submerged ethnic divisions. Although, from the outside, it seems as if the latter country has done a better job of domestic provision thus far.

  3. 5 out of 5

    Maestro Tayem

    لقد وصلت الصواريخ الروسية الى المريخ لكن سكان القرية التي أعيش فيها يخرجون البطاطا باليد من الأفضل أن نكون مكتفين و أحرارا , منه جائعين ومعدومي الحرية اني أعتقد أن لا فكرة يستطاع تحقيقها بالفعل , ان لم يسبقها فهم أكثرية الشعب لها الشعب لا يبقي على الحكومة لأنها جيدة , بل لأننا نحن سيئون أندريه أمالريك , الصحفي و المعارض الروسي احد مؤسسي " الحركة الأدبية المنشقة عن الاتحاد السوفياتي " أسمى كتابه الذي خطه في عام 1969 ونشر في عام 1970 هل يبقى الاتّحاد السّوفييتي حتى عام 1984؟ الفكرة الرئيسية التي يط لقد وصلت الصواريخ الروسية الى المريخ لكن سكان القرية التي أعيش فيها يخرجون البطاطا باليد من الأفضل أن نكون مكتفين و أحرارا , منه جائعين ومعدومي الحرية اني أعتقد أن لا فكرة يستطاع تحقيقها بالفعل , ان لم يسبقها فهم أكثرية الشعب لها الشعب لا يبقي على الحكومة لأنها جيدة , بل لأننا نحن سيئون أندريه أمالريك , الصحفي و المعارض الروسي احد مؤسسي " الحركة الأدبية المنشقة عن الاتحاد السوفياتي " أسمى كتابه الذي خطه في عام 1969 ونشر في عام 1970 هل يبقى الاتّحاد السّوفييتي حتى عام 1984؟ الفكرة الرئيسية التي يطرحها , هو توقع تفكك البلاد وانهيار الإتحاد السوفياتي بسبب عوامل موضوعية وهي غياب آلية النقد وميزان المراجعة , وتكميم الأفواه ومنع الحريات بالاضافة الى وطأة التناقضات الاجتماعية والعرقية , و الرجعية السوفياتية والامبريالية الاشتراكية , جهاز بيرقراطي أدى الى نشوء طبقة صاحبة امتيازات تناقض قوي متعدد القوميات يطرح ايضا المؤلف فكرة حصول انهيار داخلي كلما اشتد الطمع في السياسة الخارجية تم كتابة هذا العمل , وكان عنوان الكتاب بالبداية يتوقع السقوط في عام 1980 ولكنه قام بتغيره التاريخ الى عام 1984 .مستوحياً ذلك من الرائعة الرواية ل جورج أورويل 1984 يقول المؤلف في الصفحة الأولى ولا بد لي من التأكيد على أن هذا النص غير مبني على البحث العلمي بل على ملاحظات وتأملات شخصية ومن هذه الجهة , فأنه قد يبدو للقارىء ثرثرة فارغة كان ردة فعل العالم على الكتاب ضعيفا جدا بما فيهم الولايات المتحدة حيث كان تأثيره ضئيلا وكانوا لا يعتبرونه تنبؤ سياسي ولكن استطاع أمالريك ان يثبت لاحقا ان كتابه أطروحة حقيقية فهو شرح آلية السقوط والمراحل التي يعيش فيها الاتّحاد السّوفييتي و وصفها بشكل رائع .. و من التوقعات الرائعة التي تحدث عنها في ذلكم الوقت هو ان ألمانيا سوف تتحد وان هذا لا شك فيه وان الصين سترفع مع الزمن معيشة شعبها , كما انها ستعبر الى عهد من التحرر يؤهلها لأن تكون صديقة لأمريكا الديمقراطية هالكلام قاله في الستينيات وهو ما حدث مع الصين والمانيا فعلا فألمانيا توحدت واصبحت من افضل دول العالم وناهيك عن الصين التي كسرت حقا عزلتها و منتجاتها تغزو العالم وانفتحت على امريكا و العالم الغربي و تهدف إلى أن تصبح قوة عظمى عالمية جديدة اما توقعه بخصوص الحرب الروسية _ الصينية فهو الذي لم يحدث المؤلف توفي عام 1980 وهو في سن 42 في حادث سيارة في اسبانيا , مشبوه؟ / كيه جى بى رغم صغر الكتاب الا انك تشعر بالملل , لا اعرف ما هو السبب ربما يكون الترجمة عن الروسية ترجمة جورج حاج / دار النهار للنشر _ لبنان بيروت والكتاب بحاجة الى هوامش لغير المطلعين على الفترة التاريخية التي يحللها المؤلف

  4. 5 out of 5

    Lorenzo Berardi

    Interesting and sometimes witty short essay written by a lately Russian political ex-pat while he was still stuck in the USSR. With this book Amalrik at the end of the 1960s was foretelling the fall of Soviet Union around the orwellian year of 1984. It's true how everything has its end, but for those who were living in the USSR I guess how the same idea of "the end of the Russian Soviet" was probably hard to wonder and even conceive for a long time. Yet Amalrik understood how USSR was not neveren Interesting and sometimes witty short essay written by a lately Russian political ex-pat while he was still stuck in the USSR. With this book Amalrik at the end of the 1960s was foretelling the fall of Soviet Union around the orwellian year of 1984. It's true how everything has its end, but for those who were living in the USSR I guess how the same idea of "the end of the Russian Soviet" was probably hard to wonder and even conceive for a long time. Yet Amalrik understood how USSR was not neverending and paid for his immagination spending some time in a Siberian gulag. He actually looked forward a bit too much considering the possibility of a conflict with uprising China as the main cause of the Soviet collapse. We all knew how it went and the very little part China played in perestrojka and glasnost and so on. But still Amalrik was creating a strategic scenario that was potentially true and his speculations about that "Russian-Chinese War" were often brilliant. Not to mention how China really broke up its isolation in the last years, aiming to become the new world superpower thanks to the dominance given by its population.

  5. 4 out of 5

    Arthur Sylvester

    Prescient.

  6. 4 out of 5

    Fred

    the only person to predict the fall of the USSR an absolutely delicious stylist to boot. utterly forgotten (surpressed?) died in a car crash in spain (suspicious?)

  7. 4 out of 5

    Thomas

    I read this in college and thought it would turn out to be very prophetic [it was]. Though his timeline was off by a few years, Amalrik's thesis proved true. I read this in college and thought it would turn out to be very prophetic [it was]. Though his timeline was off by a few years, Amalrik's thesis proved true.

  8. 4 out of 5

    Leonardo

    Con o sin aliento externo, lo cierto es que la inmensa mayoría de los intelectuales soviéticos nunca siguió el ejemplo que daban, aunque fuera tímidamente, otros países de Europa oriental. El miedo que inspiraba la represión de Stalin, aunque nadie hablara realmente del asunto, se cernía todavía como un velo mortuorio tres décadas después de su muerte, y todos los críticos, a excepción de los más atrevidos y valientes, procuraban mantenerse dentro de los límites que marcaban los temas y el lengu Con o sin aliento externo, lo cierto es que la inmensa mayoría de los intelectuales soviéticos nunca siguió el ejemplo que daban, aunque fuera tímidamente, otros países de Europa oriental. El miedo que inspiraba la represión de Stalin, aunque nadie hablara realmente del asunto, se cernía todavía como un velo mortuorio tres décadas después de su muerte, y todos los críticos, a excepción de los más atrevidos y valientes, procuraban mantenerse dentro de los límites que marcaban los temas y el lenguaje aceptados. Presuponían, con bastante razón, que el país era algo duradero. Escritores como Andrei Amalrik —cuyo ensayo ¿Sobrevivirá la Unión Soviética hasta 1984? se publicó por primera vez en Occidente en 1970 y se reeditó ampliado diez años después— eran proféticos, pero atípicos. En 1983, la Unión Soviética, al contrario que los regímenes títeres que había instalado en sus márgenes, existía desde hacía mucho más tiempo del que la mayoría de sus ciudadanos podía recordar y parecía fundamentalmente estable. Postguerra Pág.744

  9. 4 out of 5

    Bert Bruins

  10. 4 out of 5

    Dmitry

  11. 4 out of 5

    Victor Nepsha

  12. 4 out of 5

    Winter Writer Books

  13. 5 out of 5

    Wendel

  14. 4 out of 5

    Donald

  15. 5 out of 5

    Brian Kelly

  16. 5 out of 5

    Elizabeth

  17. 5 out of 5

    Levan Ramishvili

  18. 5 out of 5

    Mamdouh Nashy

  19. 5 out of 5

    Bogusław Muraszko

  20. 5 out of 5

    Josiah

  21. 4 out of 5

    Derek Shouba

  22. 5 out of 5

    Manray9

  23. 4 out of 5

    Paul Vittay

  24. 5 out of 5

    José Van rosmalen

  25. 5 out of 5

    James

  26. 5 out of 5

    Katya

  27. 4 out of 5

    Karl Schmidt

  28. 5 out of 5

    Vitali

  29. 4 out of 5

    Michael

  30. 5 out of 5

    Cristiano

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